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One number for how strong a team is right now. Every match over twelve seasons nudges both sides' Elo toward the result, more for a heavy win, with a bump for playing at home. What's left is a clean strength rating you can rank across leagues, and a prior the match model leans on.
Elo base 1500, K=20 margin-of-victory scaled, home advantage +65. Built on 12 seasons of Understat results. Form is the last six (most recent right). Information only.
