Peak Props CLUB SOCCER · MATCHUP MODEL · POISSON RATINGS

Predictive model

Matchup model

Team attack and defense ratings from scoring and concede rates, turned into a Poisson projection for any pairing. Pick two teams to see win, draw and loss probabilities, the expected total, and where the 2.5 line sits.

→ Edge Engine: price every market for any fixture

Model vs market

Our Poisson win/draw/loss for upcoming fixtures next to the sharp-book de-vigged fair line (Pinnacle, and Circa when it prices soccer). Edge is our model minus the fair line, in points. Best is the top American price across Pinnacle, DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, Caesars and Hard Rock. Biggest edges first. Information only.

Fixture	Kickoff	Model (W/D/L)	Fair (W/D/L)	Edge	Best (home)
Nice v LorientLigue 1	Sat, Aug 22	27% / 24% / 49%	43% / 27% / 30%	-16 / -3 / +19	+120BetMGM
Marseille v StrasbourgLigue 1	Fri, Aug 21	47% / 22% / 30%	58% / 22% / 20%	-11 / +1 / +10	-145BetMGM
Union Berlin v Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga	Sat, Aug 29	36% / 22% / 42%	40% / 27% / 33%	-4 / -5 / +9	+140Caesars
Bristol City v MillwallChampionship	Sat, Aug 15	32% / 27% / 41%	39% / 29% / 32%	-7 / -2 / +8	+145BetMGM
Valencia v Real BetisLa Liga	Sun, Aug 16	31% / 25% / 43%	35% / 29% / 35%	-4 / -4 / +8	+167Pinnacle
Real Madrid v Real SociedadLa Liga	Sun, Aug 16	74% / 15% / 11%	67% / 19% / 14%	+7 / -4 / -3	-225BetMGM
Watford v SouthamptonChampionship	Sun, Aug 16	24% / 24% / 52%	28% / 27% / 45%	-4 / -3 / +7	+233Pinnacle
Alavés v GetafeLa Liga	Sat, Aug 15	35% / 32% / 33%	40% / 34% / 27%	-5 / -2 / +7	+139Pinnacle
Alavés v GetafeLa Liga	Sun, Aug 16	35% / 32% / 33%	40% / 34% / 27%	-5 / -2 / +7	+139Pinnacle
Bologna v LazioSerie A	Sat, Aug 22	37% / 29% / 34%	43% / 29% / 28%	-6 / 0 / +6	+118Pinnacle
Paris Saint Germain v RennesLigue 1	Sat, Aug 22	61% / 20% / 19%	67% / 18% / 15%	-6 / +2 / +4	-250DraftKings
Sevilla v Rayo VallecanoLa Liga	Sat, Aug 15	39% / 28% / 33%	43% / 30% / 28%	-4 / -2 / +6	+125BetMGM
Toulouse v LyonLigue 1	Sat, Aug 22	33% / 26% / 41%	28% / 25% / 47%	+5 / +1 / -5	+250FanDuel
Sparta Rotterdam v FeyenoordEredivisie	Sun, Aug 9	19% / 20% / 62%	21% / 23% / 56%	-3 / -3 / +5	+350BetMGM
Espanyol v LevanteLa Liga	Sun, Aug 16	45% / 25% / 30%	46% / 29% / 25%	-1 / -4 / +5	+104Pinnacle
Angers v LilleLigue 1	Sat, Aug 22	22% / 27% / 51%	19% / 25% / 56%	+2 / +2 / -5	+392Pinnacle
Genoa v NapoliSerie A	Sat, Aug 22	24% / 26% / 50%	20% / 30% / 51%	+4 / -4 / -1	+380Caesars
Groningen v FC UtrechtEredivisie	Sun, Aug 9	36% / 27% / 37%	39% / 28% / 33%	-3 / -1 / +4	+144Pinnacle
RB Leipzig v Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga	Sat, Aug 29	59% / 22% / 20%	62% / 21% / 18%	-3 / +1 / +2	-185BetMGM
Fulham v ChelseaPremier League	Mon, Aug 24	35% / 25% / 40%	32% / 26% / 42%	+3 / -1 / -2	+225Hard Rock
Everton v Crystal PalacePremier League	Sat, Aug 22	47% / 27% / 26%	44% / 28% / 28%	+3 / -1 / -1	+115DraftKings
Parma v CagliariSerie A	Sat, Aug 22	34% / 31% / 35%	36% / 31% / 33%	-2 / 0 / +2	+165Caesars
SC Freiburg v Werder BremenBundesliga	Sat, Aug 29	49% / 24% / 27%	47% / 26% / 27%	+2 / -2 / +0	+105Hard Rock
AS Roma v FiorentinaSerie A	Sat, Aug 22	60% / 24% / 16%	62% / 23% / 16%	-2 / +1 / +1	-195Pinnacle
Manchester City v BournemouthPremier League	Sun, Aug 23	67% / 18% / 15%	65% / 19% / 16%	+1 / -1 / -1	-225BetMGM
Udinese v ComoSerie A	Sat, Aug 22	21% / 26% / 53%	21% / 27% / 52%	0 / -1 / +1	+344Pinnacle
Torino v AC MilanSerie A	Sat, Aug 22	21% / 24% / 54%	22% / 26% / 53%	0 / -1 / +1	+336Pinnacle
Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SVBundesliga	Sat, Aug 29	71% / 18% / 11%	71% / 17% / 12%	+0 / +1 / -1	-295BetMGM
PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna SittardEredivisie	Sat, Aug 8	78% / 12% / 9%	79% / 12% / 9%	-1 / +0 / 0	-450BetMGM

Fair line = sharp book(s) de-vigged (overround removed). American odds. Not betting advice.

League Home Away

Home—win

Draw—

Away—win

Expected goals — Over 2.5 — Both to score — λ —

#	Team	Att	Def	GF/m	GA/m
1	Arsenal	1.31	0.58	1.87	0.71
2	Manchester City	1.41	0.71	2.03	0.92
3	Manchester United	1.28	0.96	1.82	1.32
4	Liverpool	1.18	1.01	1.66	1.39
5	Aston Villa	1.06	0.95	1.47	1.29
6	Brighton	1.00	0.90	1.37	1.21
7	Chelsea	1.09	1.00	1.53	1.37
8	Bournemouth	1.09	1.03	1.53	1.42
9	Brentford	1.04	1.00	1.45	1.37
10	Newcastle	1.01	1.04	1.39	1.45
11	Nottingham Forest	0.93	0.98	1.26	1.34
12	Everton	0.91	0.96	1.24	1.32
13	Fulham	0.91	0.98	1.24	1.34
14	Sunderland	0.83	0.93	1.11	1.26
15	Leeds	0.95	1.06	1.29	1.47
16	Tottenham	0.93	1.08	1.26	1.50
17	Crystal Palace	0.81	0.98	1.08	1.34
18	West Ham	0.90	1.21	1.21	1.71
19	Burnley	0.76	1.38	1.00	1.97
20	Wolves	0.58	1.26	0.71	1.79

Att/Def = scoring / conceding vs league average (1.00). Higher Att and lower Def are better. From API-Football standings. Information only, not betting advice.

#	Team	Att	Def	GF/m	GA/m
1	Barcelona	1.74	0.74	2.50	0.95
2	Real Madrid	1.44	0.73	2.03	0.92
3	Villarreal	1.35	0.91	1.89	1.21
4	Atletico Madrid	1.18	0.88	1.63	1.16
5	Real Betis	1.13	0.95	1.55	1.26
6	Celta Vigo	1.03	0.95	1.39	1.26
7	Real Sociedad	1.13	1.17	1.55	1.61
8	Rayo Vallecano	0.83	0.88	1.08	1.16
9	Getafe	0.68	0.78	0.84	1.00
10	Osasuna	0.88	0.98	1.16	1.32
11	Elche	0.96	1.10	1.29	1.50
12	Valencia	0.91	1.06	1.21	1.45
13	Mallorca	0.93	1.10	1.24	1.50
14	Alaves	0.88	1.08	1.16	1.47
15	Espanyol	0.86	1.06	1.13	1.45
16	Sevilla	0.91	1.15	1.21	1.58
17	Levante	0.93	1.17	1.24	1.61
18	Athletic Club	0.86	1.11	1.13	1.53
19	Girona	0.79	1.06	1.03	1.45
20	Oviedo	0.57	1.15	0.68	1.58

Att/Def = scoring / conceding vs league average (1.00). Higher Att and lower Def are better. From API-Football standings. Information only, not betting advice.

#	Team	Att	Def	GF/m	GA/m
1	Inter	1.80	0.79	2.34	0.92
2	Como	1.35	0.68	1.71	0.76
3	AS Roma	1.24	0.72	1.55	0.82
4	Juventus	1.28	0.77	1.61	0.89
5	Napoli	1.22	0.81	1.53	0.95
6	AC Milan	1.13	0.79	1.39	0.92
7	Atalanta	1.09	0.81	1.34	0.95
8	Bologna	1.05	1.00	1.29	1.21
9	Lazio	0.90	0.89	1.08	1.05
10	Udinese	0.98	1.04	1.18	1.26
11	Sassuolo	1.00	1.07	1.21	1.32
12	Fiorentina	0.90	1.07	1.08	1.32
13	Genoa	0.90	1.09	1.08	1.34
14	Cagliari	0.89	1.13	1.05	1.39
15	Parma	0.66	1.00	0.74	1.21
16	Torino	0.96	1.32	1.16	1.66
17	Lecce	0.66	1.07	0.74	1.32
18	Cremonese	0.74	1.20	0.84	1.50
19	Hellas Verona	0.60	1.28	0.66	1.61
20	Pisa	0.62	1.47	0.68	1.87

#	Team	Att	Def	GF/m	GA/m
1	Bayern München	2.04	0.71	3.59	1.06
2	Borussia Dortmund	1.23	0.68	2.06	1.00
3	VfB Stuttgart	1.25	0.91	2.09	1.44
4	Bayer Leverkusen	1.20	0.88	2.00	1.38
5	RB Leipzig	1.17	0.88	1.94	1.38
6	1899 Hoffenheim	1.16	0.95	1.91	1.53
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	1.09	1.16	1.79	1.91
8	SC Freiburg	0.94	1.03	1.50	1.68
9	FSV Mainz 05	0.83	0.97	1.29	1.56
10	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0.80	0.97	1.24	1.56
11	Union Berlin	0.83	1.05	1.29	1.71
12	Hamburger SV	0.77	0.98	1.18	1.59
13	1. FC Köln	0.91	1.12	1.44	1.85
14	FC Augsburg	0.84	1.09	1.32	1.79
15	Werder Bremen	0.72	1.08	1.09	1.76
16	VfL Wolfsburg	0.84	1.22	1.32	2.03
17	1. FC Heidenheim	0.78	1.26	1.21	2.12
18	FC St. Pauli	0.60	1.08	0.85	1.76

Att/Def = scoring / conceding vs league average (1.00). Higher Att and lower Def are better. From API-Football standings. Information only, not betting advice.

#	Team	Att	Def	GF/m	GA/m
1	Paris Saint Germain	1.46	0.66	2.18	0.85
2	Lens	1.32	0.77	1.94	1.03
3	Marseille	1.26	0.94	1.85	1.32
4	Lille	1.07	0.80	1.53	1.09
5	Lyon	1.09	0.86	1.56	1.18
6	Strasbourg	1.18	0.98	1.71	1.38
7	Rennes	1.19	1.03	1.74	1.47
8	Monaco	1.21	1.10	1.76	1.59
9	Toulouse	1.01	0.99	1.42	1.39
10	Lorient	1.00	1.05	1.41	1.50
11	Paris FC	0.98	1.03	1.38	1.47
12	Auxerre	0.75	0.93	1.00	1.29
13	Stade Brestois 29	0.91	1.12	1.26	1.62
14	Le Havre	0.71	0.93	0.94	1.29
15	Angers	0.66	1.00	0.85	1.41
16	Nice	0.80	1.21	1.09	1.76
17	Nantes	0.68	1.10	0.88	1.58
18	Metz	0.71	1.49	0.94	2.24

#	Team	Att	Def	GF/m	GA/m
1	Coventry	1.55	0.78	2.11	0.98
2	Ipswich	1.30	0.81	1.74	1.02
3	Southampton	1.33	0.94	1.78	1.22
4	Middlesbrough	1.18	0.81	1.57	1.02
5	Millwall	1.06	0.84	1.39	1.07
6	Derby	1.10	0.99	1.46	1.28
7	Norwich	1.05	0.94	1.37	1.22
8	Hull City	1.15	1.09	1.52	1.43
9	Wrexham	1.13	1.07	1.50	1.41
10	Birmingham	0.96	0.94	1.24	1.22
11	Bristol City	0.99	0.99	1.28	1.28
12	Sheffield Utd	1.09	1.09	1.43	1.43
13	Swansea	0.96	0.99	1.24	1.28
14	Stoke City	0.87	0.94	1.11	1.22
15	Preston	0.93	1.03	1.20	1.35
16	Leicester	0.97	1.12	1.26	1.48
17	West Brom	0.82	0.97	1.04	1.26
18	Watford	0.90	1.07	1.15	1.41
19	QPR	1.02	1.19	1.33	1.59
20	Oxford United	0.78	0.99	0.98	1.28
21	Charlton	0.77	0.97	0.96	1.26
22	Blackburn	0.73	0.94	0.91	1.22
23	Portsmouth	0.84	1.06	1.07	1.39
24	Sheffield Wednesday	0.54	1.43	0.63	1.93

#	Team	Att	Def	GF/m	GA/m
1	PSV Eindhoven	1.74	0.86	2.97	1.32
2	Feyenoord	1.25	0.84	2.06	1.29
3	NEC Nijmegen	1.36	0.98	2.26	1.56
4	Ajax	1.13	0.80	1.82	1.21
5	Twente	1.08	0.78	1.74	1.18
6	Utrecht	1.02	0.81	1.62	1.24
7	AZ Alkmaar	1.06	0.95	1.71	1.50
8	Groningen	0.92	0.86	1.44	1.32
9	Heerenveen	1.05	0.98	1.68	1.56
10	GO Ahead Eagles	1.00	0.98	1.59	1.56
11	Telstar	0.92	1.02	1.44	1.62
12	Excelsior	0.83	1.03	1.26	1.65
13	Fortuna Sittard	0.92	1.14	1.44	1.85
14	FC Volendam	0.70	1.02	1.03	1.62
15	Sparta Rotterdam	0.78	1.13	1.18	1.82
16	NAC Breda	0.70	1.06	1.03	1.71
17	PEC Zwolle	0.84	1.27	1.29	2.09
18	Heracles	0.70	1.49	1.03	2.50

#	Team	Att	Def	GF/m	GA/m
1	Sporting CP	1.81	0.60	2.62	0.71
2	Benfica	1.53	0.62	2.18	0.74
3	FC Porto	1.38	0.48	1.94	0.53
4	SC Braga	1.34	0.82	1.88	1.06
5	Famalicao	0.93	0.69	1.24	0.85
6	GIL Vicente	1.03	0.86	1.38	1.12
7	Estoril	1.16	1.21	1.59	1.68
8	Nacional	0.84	0.99	1.09	1.32
9	Santa Clara	0.75	0.91	0.94	1.21
10	Moreirense	0.84	1.06	1.09	1.44
11	Guimaraes	0.88	1.10	1.15	1.50
12	Arouca	1.03	1.34	1.38	1.88
13	Alverca	0.80	1.12	1.03	1.53
14	Estrela	0.86	1.19	1.12	1.65
15	Rio Ave	0.80	1.21	1.03	1.68
16	Casa Pia	0.73	1.21	0.91	1.68
17	Tondela	0.65	1.18	0.79	1.62
18	AVS	0.65	1.40	0.79	1.97

Att/Def = scoring / conceding vs league average (1.00). Higher Att and lower Def are better. From API-Football standings. Information only, not betting advice.

#	Team	Att	Def	GF/m	GA/m
1	Galatasaray	1.60	0.71	2.26	0.88
2	Fenerbahçe	1.60	0.85	2.26	1.09
3	Başakşehir	1.24	0.81	1.71	1.03
4	Trabzonspor	1.30	0.89	1.79	1.15
5	Beşiktaş	1.26	0.90	1.74	1.18
6	Göztepe	0.94	0.75	1.24	0.94
7	Samsunspor	1.02	1.00	1.35	1.32
8	Alanyaspor	0.92	0.92	1.21	1.21
9	Rizespor	1.02	1.13	1.35	1.53
10	Konyaspor	0.96	1.09	1.26	1.47
11	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	0.83	1.04	1.06	1.38
12	Kocaelispor	0.64	0.87	0.76	1.12
13	Eyüpspor	0.77	1.05	0.97	1.41
14	Gaziantep FK	0.96	1.24	1.26	1.71
15	Kasımpaşa	0.77	1.07	0.97	1.44
16	Antalyaspor	0.77	1.19	0.97	1.62
17	Fatih Karagümrük	0.73	1.17	0.91	1.59
18	Kayserispor	0.66	1.32	0.79	1.82

Att/Def = scoring / conceding vs league average (1.00). Higher Att and lower Def are better. From API-Football standings. Information only, not betting advice.

Scoring & concede method

How each team actually scores and concedes: expected goals per match, finishing quality (xG per shot), and how the xG splits between open play, set pieces and penalties. The set-piece column on defense is the vulnerability read. Big-5, from Understat shot data.

Team	xG/m	xG/sh	Open	Set pc	Pen	xGA/m	Set-pc xGA
Manchester City	2.24	0.136	78%	17%	5%	1.37	20%
Arsenal	2.09	0.137	67%	30%	3%	1.06	25%
Manchester United	2.01	0.126	77%	18%	5%	1.46	25%
Chelsea	2.00	0.145	72%	20%	7%	1.70	23%
Bournemouth	1.89	0.129	76%	18%	6%	1.61	31%
Brentford	1.87	0.162	67%	20%	12%	1.66	16%
Liverpool	1.86	0.118	81%	17%	2%	1.54	21%
Leeds	1.75	0.134	66%	24%	10%	1.57	26%
Crystal Palace	1.74	0.138	67%	23%	10%	1.73	23%
Newcastle United	1.69	0.127	61%	31%	7%	1.68	19%
Aston Villa	1.67	0.121	73%	27%	0%	1.55	24%
Brighton	1.62	0.117	75%	20%	5%	1.52	20%
Nottingham Forest	1.41	0.106	73%	22%	5%	1.78	25%
Fulham	1.40	0.105	68%	23%	9%	1.80	25%
Everton	1.39	0.118	73%	23%	5%	1.69	27%
West Ham	1.39	0.122	66%	30%	5%	1.95	25%
Tottenham	1.33	0.111	66%	34%	0%	1.56	24%
Sunderland	1.22	0.111	72%	21%	7%	1.69	20%
Burnley	1.17	0.108	71%	23%	5%	2.20	19%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.15	0.107	59%	30%	11%	1.75	25%

Latest season Understat shots. Open / Set pc / Pen = share of attacking xG by situation. Set-pc xGA = share of xG conceded from set pieces. Information only.

Team	xG/m	xG/sh	Open	Set pc	Pen	xGA/m	Set-pc xGA
Barcelona	2.78	0.148	78%	14%	8%	1.35	19%
Real Madrid	2.29	0.125	64%	23%	13%	1.25	20%
Atletico Madrid	1.88	0.138	77%	17%	5%	1.53	22%
Villarreal	1.87	0.154	83%	8%	9%	1.60	21%
Real Betis	1.73	0.116	81%	16%	4%	1.42	20%
Rayo Vallecano	1.70	0.115	77%	17%	6%	1.49	22%
Levante	1.67	0.121	66%	27%	6%	1.91	15%
Real Sociedad	1.61	0.126	68%	21%	10%	1.78	18%
Valencia	1.54	0.119	73%	15%	12%	1.55	26%
Girona	1.53	0.125	71%	17%	12%	1.79	21%
Alaves	1.52	0.116	66%	26%	8%	1.48	24%
Athletic Club	1.49	0.106	73%	21%	6%	1.53	14%
Mallorca	1.46	0.124	68%	20%	11%	1.75	16%
Osasuna	1.45	0.115	63%	24%	13%	1.42	17%
Celta Vigo	1.45	0.145	79%	11%	11%	1.79	20%
Espanyol	1.40	0.105	70%	24%	6%	1.95	22%
Elche	1.34	0.119	77%	15%	8%	1.95	14%
Real Oviedo	1.24	0.109	66%	29%	5%	1.82	16%
Sevilla	1.22	0.097	71%	17%	12%	1.62	14%
Getafe	1.00	0.099	66%	26%	8%	1.27	22%

Latest season Understat shots. Open / Set pc / Pen = share of attacking xG by situation. Set-pc xGA = share of xG conceded from set pieces. Information only.

Team	xG/m	xG/sh	Open	Set pc	Pen	xGA/m	Set-pc xGA
Inter	2.34	0.134	76%	19%	5%	1.10	19%
Juventus	2.03	0.119	75%	20%	5%	1.09	24%
Como	1.88	0.127	67%	24%	9%	1.17	23%
Atalanta	1.83	0.124	74%	23%	3%	1.58	28%
AC Milan	1.75	0.133	73%	16%	11%	1.37	22%
Roma	1.70	0.130	71%	21%	9%	1.26	25%
Napoli	1.57	0.115	72%	22%	7%	1.14	20%
Torino	1.48	0.113	72%	19%	10%	1.58	21%
Fiorentina	1.46	0.109	66%	25%	8%	1.53	27%
Sassuolo	1.43	0.128	72%	21%	7%	1.65	15%
Bologna	1.42	0.104	71%	19%	10%	1.37	24%
Genoa	1.37	0.114	63%	23%	14%	1.56	24%
Udinese	1.35	0.110	74%	19%	8%	1.51	17%
Pisa	1.24	0.118	71%	16%	12%	1.91	17%
Lazio	1.24	0.108	68%	24%	8%	1.38	17%
Cagliari	1.20	0.105	61%	35%	4%	1.75	27%
Verona	1.12	0.094	78%	16%	6%	1.46	27%
Parma Calcio 1913	1.09	0.093	70%	26%	4%	1.63	19%
Lecce	1.08	0.102	64%	32%	4%	1.73	25%
Cremonese	1.04	0.101	68%	26%	6%	1.81	18%

Team	xG/m	xG/sh	Open	Set pc	Pen	xGA/m	Set-pc xGA
Bayern Munich	3.14	0.161	79%	13%	8%	1.60	19%
RasenBallsport Leipzig	2.35	0.141	79%	18%	3%	1.61	23%
Bayer Leverkusen	2.35	0.150	73%	19%	8%	1.64	20%
VfB Stuttgart	2.13	0.133	78%	13%	9%	1.63	13%
Borussia Dortmund	2.07	0.152	67%	22%	11%	1.31	24%
Hoffenheim	2.06	0.139	75%	18%	7%	1.58	17%
Mainz 05	1.97	0.162	69%	20%	11%	2.01	20%
FC Cologne	1.71	0.120	77%	19%	4%	1.89	24%
Augsburg	1.70	0.121	68%	22%	11%	1.91	20%
FC Heidenheim	1.66	0.133	71%	26%	3%	2.19	18%
Wolfsburg	1.62	0.132	70%	22%	7%	2.14	21%
Eintracht Frankfurt	1.57	0.122	73%	17%	10%	1.69	20%
Freiburg	1.53	0.121	68%	26%	6%	1.76	20%
Union Berlin	1.47	0.115	60%	32%	8%	1.84	16%
Hamburger SV	1.45	0.106	72%	17%	11%	1.93	19%
Borussia M.Gladbach	1.44	0.123	71%	17%	12%	1.83	20%
Werder Bremen	1.37	0.096	76%	19%	5%	1.82	20%
St. Pauli	1.00	0.098	71%	22%	7%	2.24	19%

Latest season Understat shots. Open / Set pc / Pen = share of attacking xG by situation. Set-pc xGA = share of xG conceded from set pieces. Information only.

Team	xG/m	xG/sh	Open	Set pc	Pen	xGA/m	Set-pc xGA
Paris Saint Germain	2.36	0.129	73%	19%	8%	1.08	15%
Lens	2.29	0.134	76%	19%	4%	1.50	24%
Marseille	2.14	0.132	79%	16%	6%	1.61	15%
Monaco	1.93	0.144	76%	15%	10%	1.65	19%
Strasbourg	1.79	0.150	80%	12%	8%	1.53	18%
Lille	1.77	0.126	71%	19%	9%	1.31	18%
Rennes	1.76	0.117	73%	19%	8%	1.86	18%
Lyon	1.71	0.128	77%	16%	7%	1.58	24%
Paris FC	1.63	0.129	69%	20%	11%	1.65	24%
Lorient	1.54	0.128	63%	25%	12%	1.75	21%
Toulouse	1.51	0.106	63%	25%	11%	1.47	19%
Brest	1.51	0.129	68%	20%	13%	1.73	18%
Nice	1.43	0.128	73%	22%	5%	2.13	17%
Nantes	1.37	0.106	69%	24%	7%	1.61	21%
Auxerre	1.31	0.113	68%	25%	7%	1.56	19%
Le Havre	1.25	0.109	64%	23%	13%	1.79	19%
Metz	1.18	0.102	67%	21%	12%	1.92	17%
Angers	1.10	0.107	71%	14%	15%	1.86	21%

Latest season Understat shots. Open / Set pc / Pen = share of attacking xG by situation. Set-pc xGA = share of xG conceded from set pieces. Information only.

Prop targeting

Defensive matchups

Every defense leaks more to some shooter types than others. Pick an archetype and see who concedes it most. The soft defenses at the top are the ones to target with players of that type. Non-penalty xG conceded per match.

Non-penalty xG conceded per match to each shooter archetype, ranked within the league. Weak concedes among the most (a target), strong among the least. Latest complete season. Information only, not betting advice.

Tactical reads

What tactical analysts are writing about these teams, read by our model into attack / defense / tempo / press signals. A qualitative layer on top of the numbers. Grows as more is written.

Chelsea 15 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“High PPDA and immediate counterpressing recovery”

Manchester City 14 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo low

Press high

“Rest defense organized similarly to Manchester City's structured approach”

Arsenal 12 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“High PPDA and immediate counterpressing recovery”

Barcelona 12 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

Press high

“Relationist patterns without classical positions create fluid attacking threats”

Liverpool 10 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press passive

“High PPDA and coordinated pressing disrupt opponents”

Manchester United 8 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

Press high

“Back three structure emphasizes solidity against wide attacks”

Everton 8 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo low

Press high

“Dangerous transitional play and left-wing threat”

AC Milan 7 pieces

Attack blunt

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Underperforming xG (44.15) vs goals (41), low efficiency”

Ajax 6 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Possession-heavy play creates chances via Hato's advanced positioning”

Brighton 5 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press passive

“Solid defensive presence via Baleba's shielding and vertical breaking.”

Tottenham 5 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

Press passive

“High progressive pass distance and vertical intent create attacking threat”

Inter 5 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“High finishing efficiency, converting 62 goals from 56.52 xG”

Getafe 5 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Physical confrontation and high-intensity defending emphasized”

Atalanta 5 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“High attacking threat via width and horizontal play”

Aston Villa 5 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

Press high

“High xG conversion and clinical finishing under Emery's structured attack”

Leicester 4 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

Press high

“Narrow compact shape exploited by Lacazette's drop”

RB Leipzig 4 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Post-Werner era struggles with creative attacking options”

Werder Bremen 4 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

“Fast-paced direct play enabled by Coulibaly's vertical passing and spatial manipulation”

Juventus 4 pieces

Attack blunt

Press high

“Underperforming xG (50.67) vs goals (43), inefficient finishing”

VfB Stuttgart 3 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Overloads midfield with dropping full-backs and creates spaces via positional switches”

Sunderland 3 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“High forward-pass rates indicate direct attacking tempo”

Borussia Dortmund 3 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Schlotterbeck's elite passing and verticality create attacking threats”

Crystal Palace 3 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

Press high

“High forward-pass rates indicate direct attacking tempo”

Villarreal 3 pieces

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

Tempo low

Press passive

“Relies on counterattacks but fails to create chances in high-intensity UCL matches”

Eintracht Frankfurt 3 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Press passive

“Struggled to break down Liverpool's structured pressing and defensive organization.”

Bayer Leverkusen 3 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo low

Press passive

“Dynamic wide play and progressive runs enhance attacking threat”

Napoli 3 pieces

Attack blunt

“Close xG (40.42) vs goals (39), below expectation”

Burnley 2 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

Press high

“High forward-pass rates indicate direct attacking tempo”

Sevilla 2 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Wide overload creation via fluid 4-3-3 and winger runs”

Real Madrid 2 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

“Effective attacking threat through strategic pragmatism and clinical finishing”

Celta Vigo 2 pieces

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

Tempo low

“Reduced technical quality limits attacking creativity.”

Nottingham Forest 2 pieces

Attack blunt

Tempo high

“Luiz's role as central midfielder driving forward with direct passes indicates high-tempo play.”

Fulham 2 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

“High progressive pass distance and direct play create attacking threat”

Brentford 2 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

“Direct play and high progressive pass distance create attacking threat”

Atletico Madrid 2 pieces

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

“4-4-2 midfield press provides solid coverage in-behind”

Como 2 pieces

Attack blunt

Tempo low

“Underperforming xG (44.53) vs goals (41), inefficient”

Sassuolo 2 pieces

Attack sharp

“Boga's progressive runs and ball progression stats highlight attacking threat”

AZ Alkmaar 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Dangerous long-ball attacks exploiting Nijmegen's stretched defense”

West Ham 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

Press high

“High forward-pass rates indicate direct attacking tempo”

Bournemouth 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Tempo high

Press high

“Vertical attacks and dynamic pressing create high threat”

Shakhtar Donetsk 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Central control and wide outlets create high chance creation”

Lazio 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

Press high

“Immobile as focal point, 3-1-5-1 overload midfield corridors”

Wolves 1 piece

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

Tempo low

Press passive

“Toothless attack struggled to create threats”

Galatasaray 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense leaky

Press passive

“Dangerous 1v1 opportunities and overload creation through rotations”

Hannover 96 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo low

“Dominant possession-based play with spatial intelligence to create chances”

Nice 1 piece

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

Press passive

“Disconnected high press leaves midfield exposed to counterattacks”

Feyenoord 1 piece

Attack sharp

Tempo low

Press high

“Aggressive high press with intensive counterpressing”

Rennes 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense solid

Tempo high

“Camavinga's dribbling and one-on-one success create dangerous chances”

Norwich 1 piece

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

Tempo low

“Lowest goal-scoring and poor shot accuracy indicate toothless attack”

Espanyol 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense solid

“Elite creative output with high chance creation and progressive passing”

Girona 1 piece

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

“Technical decline reduces chance creation potential.”

Real Betis 1 piece

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

“Talent drain limits attacking creativity and threat.”

Real Sociedad 1 piece

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

“Market value disparities reduce attacking flexibility.”

Valencia 1 piece

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

“Technical decline stifles attacking threat and creativity.”

Oviedo 1 piece

Attack blunt

Defense leaky

“Severe financial constraints limit attacking threat.”

Ipswich 1 piece

Attack blunt

Tempo low

“Low progressive pass distance and limited verticality hinder attacking threat”

Monaco 1 piece

Attack sharp

Defense solid

“Structured defense allows Biereth to exploit spaces behind center-backs”

Millwall 1 piece

Attack sharp

“High goal contributions and key passes drive dangerous attacking threats”

Eibar 1 piece

Press high

“Highlighted as top pressing team in La Liga with high PPDA intensity”

AS Roma 1 piece

Attack blunt

“Significant xG (44.45) vs goals (34), poor conversion”

Mallorca 1 piece

Press passive

“Passive deep block allows Barcelona to exploit central gaps”

Athletic Club 1 piece

Defense leaky

“Lower squad depth leads to leaky defensive solidity.”

FC Augsburg 1 piece

Defense leaky

“Conceded 21 goals in 9 games, poor defensive structure allowing high expected goals”

Verona 1 piece

Defense solid

“Man-oriented structure limits central infiltration”

Southampton 1 piece

Defense solid

“Vestergaard's anticipation and closing down blocked England's attacks”

Spezia 1 piece

Press high

“Aggressive central pressing to restrict Milan's options and regain possession”

Leeds 1 piece

Press high

“Aggressive high press disrupted Arsenal's build-up and forced defensive errors”

Lyon 1 piece

Defense solid

“5-3-2 structure offers better coverage in-behind and wider space”

Source: tactical-analysis corpus, read by a local language model into directional signals. Sparse and evolving. Information only.