Peak Props CLUB SOCCER · PLAYER PROJECTIONS · IN-HOUSE MODEL

Predictive model

Player projections

Per-90 projections from our own per-match data, shrunk toward position and league baselines so a three-game hot streak does not masquerade as a rate. Start probability and usage sit alongside, because a projection is only worth the minutes behind it.

#Player Start% G/90A/90Sh/90SoT/90KP/90Drb/90 Usage Value
1 Erling HaalandBACKPenalty-box finisher 94% 0.790.232.991.720.801.05 4.8 €180m
2 Eli Junior KroupiSecondary threat 61% 0.640.011.751.131.152.01 4.9
3 Taiwo AwoniyiPenalty-box finisher 12% 0.570.152.231.241.041.25 4.5 €16.0m
4 William OsulaSecondary threat 33% 0.620.021.681.160.671.80 4.2 €7.0m
5 Hugo EkitikéPenalty-box finisher 68% 0.520.192.300.941.043.40 6.8
6 Benjamin ŠeškoPenalty-box finisher 50% 0.570.072.651.730.601.73 5.0 €70.0m
7 Igor ThiagoSecondary threat 97% 0.580.031.831.160.681.51 4.0 €18.0m
8 RicharlisonPenalty-box finisher 63% 0.480.172.111.160.931.52 4.6 €20.0m
9 Viktor GyökeresSecondary threat 64% 0.540.051.640.880.851.56 4.0 €75.0m
10 João PedroOUTSecondary threat 86% 0.470.171.680.901.012.52 5.2 €50.0m
11 Gabriel JesusPenalty-box finisher 14% 0.520.042.751.900.832.96 6.5 €32.0m
12 Bruno FernandesChance creator 97% 0.250.581.560.683.791.12 6.5
13 Ollie WatkinsSecondary threat 89% 0.490.101.881.170.761.81 4.5 €40.0m
14 Donyell MalenPenalty-box finisher 19% 0.470.122.471.100.962.53 6.0 €25.0m
15 Omar MarmoushSecondary threat 29% 0.370.302.341.041.412.57 6.3 €75.0m
16 Antoine SemenyoDribble carrier 95% 0.450.111.861.101.123.46 6.4 €40.0m
17 Danny WelbeckSecondary threat 68% 0.490.041.811.080.791.20 3.8 €5.0m
18 Kai HavertzSecondary threat 42% 0.330.351.810.701.551.34 4.7 €65.0m
19 BetoSecondary threat 43% 0.470.061.770.940.722.28 4.8 €22.0m
20 Lukas NmechaSecondary threat 29% 0.460.091.991.230.931.30 4.2
21 Zian FlemmingSecondary threat 69% 0.490.011.770.970.560.71 3.0 €6.5m
22 Charalampos KostoulasDribble carrier 10% 0.400.182.901.451.804.62 9.3
23 Callum WilsonSecondary threat 28% 0.460.071.951.090.621.98 4.5 €8.0m
24 Tammy AbrahamSecondary threat 17% 0.460.041.770.891.101.23 4.1 €15.0m
25 Jean Philippe MatetaPenalty-box finisher 78% 0.470.012.211.250.441.36 4.0 €30.0m
26 Morgan Gibbs-WhiteSecondary threat 95% 0.410.121.650.891.421.82 4.9 €50.0m
27 Federico ChiesaSecondary threat 4% 0.380.172.171.020.782.38 5.3 €14.0m
28 Dominic Calvert-LewinSecondary threat 86% 0.450.042.141.100.691.10 3.9 €16.0m
29 Rayan CherkiChance creator 52% 0.200.541.520.632.844.82 9.2 €45.0m
30 Noah OkaforDribble carrier 64% 0.430.061.470.861.114.82 7.4 €13.0m
31 Cole PalmerSecondary threat 81% 0.420.061.841.061.192.92 6.0 €120m
32 Alexander IsakSecondary threat 57% 0.380.131.840.790.531.53 3.9 €120m
33 Wilson IsidorSecondary threat 28% 0.420.022.251.220.171.92 4.3 €12.0m
34 Nick WoltemadeLink / progressor 67% 0.370.141.190.641.031.70 3.9 €30.0m
35 Bryan MbeumoSecondary threat 94% 0.380.102.001.081.581.89 5.5 €55.0m
36 RayanLink / progressor 87% 0.350.151.280.611.142.56 5.0
37 Harry WilsonSecondary threat 86% 0.310.221.640.801.281.17 4.1 €15.0m
38 Mikel MerinoLink / progressor 36% 0.310.231.300.651.101.21 3.6 €35.0m
39 Mohamed SalahCreative wide/8 85% 0.280.281.780.761.982.88 6.6 €50.0m
40 Raúl JiménezSecondary threat 69% 0.350.122.110.790.991.26 4.4 €5.0m

Per-90 rates (empirical-Bayes shrunk), min ~180'. Start% = share of appearances of 60+ minutes. Usage = shots + key passes + dribbles per 90. From API-Football per-fixture stats. Value = current Transfermarkt market value. Information only, not betting advice.

Finishing & scoring method

How each player actually scores: expected goals, finishing (goals over or under xG), chance quality (xG per shot), average shot distance, and the open-play / set-piece / penalty split. Big-5, from Understat shot data.

#Player GxGFinxG/shDist OpenSet pcPenMethod
1 Erling Haaland 27 28.8 -1.8 0.230 12.5m 80% 9% 11% Penalty-box poacher
2 Thiago 22 24.7 -2.7 0.294 12.2m 65% 7% 28% Penalty specialist
3 Ollie Watkins 16 18.8 -2.8 0.227 13.8m 84% 16% 0% Penalty-box poacher
4 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 14 18.7 -4.7 0.256 11.2m 74% 6% 20% Penalty-box poacher
5 Jean-Philippe Mateta 12 16.0 -4.0 0.254 13.7m 73% 8% 19% Penalty-box poacher
6 João Pedro 15 15.7 -0.7 0.215 12.9m 76% 24% 0% Penalty-box poacher
7 Viktor Gyokeres 14 13.9 +0.1 0.252 11.9m 69% 15% 16% Penalty-box poacher
8 Bryan Mbeumo 11 13.3 -2.3 0.182 15m 98% 2% 0% Penalty-box poacher
9 Antoine Semenyo 17 12.8 +4.2 0.155 17.3m 82% 6% 12% Clinical finisher
10 Danny Welbeck 13 12.7 +0.3 0.227 13.3m 68% 14% 18% Penalty-box poacher
11 Benjamin Sesko 11 12.5 -1.5 0.205 12.8m 98% 2% 0% Penalty-box poacher
12 Raúl Jiménez 9 12.0 -3.0 0.165 14.2m 61% 14% 25% Penalty specialist
13 Bruno Fernandes 9 11.9 -2.9 0.140 20.2m 55% 7% 38% Penalty specialist
14 Enzo Fernández 10 11.9 -1.9 0.166 18.2m 75% 12% 13% Penalty-box poacher
15 Hugo Ekitike 11 11.9 -0.9 0.184 14.8m 93% 7% 0% Penalty-box poacher
16 Kevin Schade 8 11.8 -3.8 0.208 10.6m 82% 12% 6% Penalty-box poacher
17 Evanilson 6 11.8 -5.8 0.164 12.7m 83% 17% 0% Penalty-box poacher
18 Morgan Gibbs-White 15 11.7 +3.3 0.141 16.2m 80% 14% 7% Clinical finisher
19 Ismaila Sarr 9 11.5 -2.5 0.240 14.1m 66% 15% 20% Penalty-box poacher
20 Beto 9 10.9 -1.9 0.255 10.2m 94% 6% 0% Penalty-box poacher
21 Cole Palmer 10 10.3 -0.3 0.160 18.9m 50% 6% 45% Penalty specialist
22 Richarlison 11 9.9 +1.1 0.162 12.5m 71% 29% 0% Penalty-box poacher
23 Cody Gakpo 7 9.8 -2.8 0.113 17.6m 91% 9% 0% High-volume shooter
24 Zian Flemming 11 9.6 +1.4 0.184 14.6m 59% 25% 16% Penalty-box poacher
25 Marcus Tavernier 7 9.4 -2.4 0.134 19.8m 75% 8% 16% High-volume shooter
26 Thierno Barry 8 9.1 -1.1 0.241 10.4m 79% 21% 0% Penalty-box poacher
27 Mohamed Salah 7 8.8 -1.8 0.132 16.3m 86% 5% 9% High-volume shooter
28 Anthony Gordon 6 8.8 -2.8 0.182 17.1m 66% 8% 26% Penalty specialist
29 Eli Junior Kroupi 13 8.8 +4.2 0.170 16.9m 54% 29% 17% Penalty-box poacher
30 Bukayo Saka 7 8.7 -1.7 0.123 18.2m 88% 3% 9% High-volume shooter
31 Dango Ouattara 7 8.7 -1.7 0.155 14.5m 74% 26% 0% All-round scorer
32 Jarrod Bowen 9 8.3 +0.7 0.105 17.4m 75% 15% 9% High-volume shooter
33 Nick Woltemade 8 8.3 -0.3 0.250 12.6m 55% 36% 9% Set-piece threat
34 Lukas Nmecha 6 8.1 -2.1 0.271 11.7m 54% 18% 28% Penalty specialist
35 Harvey Barnes 7 8.1 -1.1 0.139 17.3m 80% 20% 0% All-round scorer
36 Callum Wilson 7 7.6 -0.6 0.200 12m 72% 28% 0% Penalty-box poacher
37 Florian Wirtz 5 7.6 -2.6 0.149 16.9m 95% 5% 0% All-round scorer
38 Tolu Arokodare 3 7.4 -4.4 0.161 12.5m 46% 43% 10% Set-piece threat
39 Igor Jesus 6 7.2 -1.2 0.103 13.9m 64% 25% 11% High-volume shooter
40 Matheus Cunha 10 7.1 +2.9 0.079 20.3m 87% 13% 0% Long-range shooter

Latest season Understat shots, min 15 shots. Fin = goals minus xG (finishing over/under-performance). Open / Set pc / Pen = share of xG by situation. Information only, not betting advice.