Visuals / Regression watch
Visualization
Regression watch
Finishing is mostly noise. A player scoring far above the expected goals of his shots is usually running hot, not permanently clinical, and his goals tend to fall back toward xG. On the left, the hottest over-performers, likely to cool. On the right, the coldest, getting the chances but not converting, likely to heat up. This is the fade-and-back angle, with the significance shown.
Running hot · fade
Running cold · back
Teams over / under their xG
Attack (scoring vs xG)
Defense (conceding vs xGA)
Our xG, non-penalty shots, current season, min 18 shots. Diff = goals minus xG. z = diff / √xG (roughly, |z|≥2 is a real over/under-performance, not noise). Regression is a tendency, not a guarantee. Information only, not betting advice.