Forward-graded receipts

Every prop pick, graded.

Model probabilities freeze before kickoff. When a match finishes, each served market is scored against actual player stats and posted market lines, hits and misses alike. 766 fixtures graded. 0 predictions waiting on results.

Market	Graded	Log loss	Brier	ECE	Skill
Shots 1.5+Served LGBM · forward-graded vs match stats	28547	0.350	0.109	0.049	+0.095vs climatology
SOT 0.5+Served LGBM · forward-graded vs match stats	28514	0.377	0.118	0.024	+0.085vs climatology
Tackles 1.5+Served LGBM · forward-graded vs match stats	29132	0.449	0.147	0.040	+0.084vs climatology
Fouls 0.5+Served LGBM · forward-graded vs match stats	29132	0.591	0.206	0.081	+0.077vs climatology
Shots 2.5+Served LGBM · forward-graded vs match stats	28547	0.192	0.054	0.029	+0.062vs climatology
Anytime goalServed LGBM · forward-graded vs match stats	29132	0.193	0.052	0.019	+0.040vs climatology
SOT 1.5+Served LGBM · forward-graded vs match stats	28514	0.134	0.035	0.015	+0.035vs climatology

Held-out calibration lives on the model scoreboard. This page is forward accountability only — not a promise of future edge.

The ledger

Athletic Club v Barcelona FT 0-3 · la-liga · May 25 · 5/6 headline hits

Lamine Yamal Shots 1.5+ · model 96.1% HIT

Lamine Yamal Shots 2.5+ · model 84.4% HIT

Lamine Yamal SOT 0.5+ · model 83.7% HIT

Raphinha Shots 1.5+ · model 80.1% MISS

Beñat Prados Fouls 0.5+ · model 75.9% HIT

Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Atalanta v Parma FT 2-3 · serie-a · May 25 · 5/6 headline hits

M. Retegui Shots 1.5+ · model 94.6% HIT

Mateo Pellegrino Fouls 0.5+ · model 91.4% HIT

M. Retegui Shots 2.5+ · model 81.6% HIT

M. Retegui SOT 0.5+ · model 80.2% HIT

Ademola Lookman Shots 1.5+ · model 80.1% HIT

Ademola Lookman SOT 0.5+ · model 73.8% MISS

Empoli v Hellas Verona FT 1-2 · serie-a · May 25 · 6/6 headline hits

Liam Henderson Fouls 0.5+ · model 91.4% HIT

Emmanuel Gyasi Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Ondrej Duda Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.3% HIT

Sebastiano Esposito Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Suat Serdar Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Nicolás Valentini Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Lazio v Lecce FT 0-1 · serie-a · May 25 · 5/6 headline hits

Valentin Castellanos Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

Valentin Castellanos SOT 0.5+ · model 76.8% HIT

Valentin Castellanos Shots 2.5+ · model 75.3% HIT

Nikola Krstović Shots 1.5+ · model 73.1% MISS

Nikola Krstović Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.7% HIT

N. Rovella Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Torino v AS Roma FT 0-2 · serie-a · May 25 · 4/6 headline hits

Bryan Cristante Fouls 0.5+ · model 76.3% HIT

Saul Coco Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.0% MISS

Gianluca Mancini Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Udinese v Fiorentina FT 2-3 · serie-a · May 25 · 6/6 headline hits

Moise Kean Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

Moise Kean SOT 0.5+ · model 76.8% HIT

Lorenzo Lucca Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Jaka Bijol Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Moise Kean Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Jesper Karlström Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.9% HIT

Venezia v Juventus FT 2-3 · serie-a · May 25 · 4/6 headline hits

Dušan Vlahović Shots 1.5+ · model 80.1% MISS

Alessio Zerbin Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Kike Pérez Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Fouls 0.5+ · model 70.9% HIT

Randal Kolo Muani Shots 1.5+ · model 69.7% HIT

Dušan Vlahović SOT 0.5+ · model 68.8% MISS

Bournemouth v Leicester FT 2-0 · epl · May 25 · 6/6 headline hits

Antoine Semenyo Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

Evanilson Shots 1.5+ · model 82.3% HIT

Antoine Semenyo Fouls 0.5+ · model 81.3% HIT

Fulham v Manchester City FT 0-2 · epl · May 25 · 5/6 headline hits

Saša Lukić Fouls 0.5+ · model 85.0% HIT

Kenny Tete Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Ryan Sessegnon Fouls 0.5+ · model 78.2% HIT

Omar Marmoush Shots 1.5+ · model 73.1% HIT

Omar Marmoush SOT 0.5+ · model 73.1% MISS

Erling Haaland Shots 1.5+ · model 67.2% HIT

Ipswich v West Ham FT 1-3 · epl · May 25 · 6/6 headline hits

Jarrod Bowen Shots 1.5+ · model 80.1% HIT

Sam Morsy Fouls 0.5+ · model 75.9% HIT

Liam Delap Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.5% HIT

Liverpool v Crystal Palace FT 1-1 · epl · May 25 · 5/6 headline hits

Mohamed Salah Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

Daniel Muñoz Fouls 0.5+ · model 81.3% HIT

Mohamed Salah SOT 0.5+ · model 80.2% HIT

Will Hughes Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.5% HIT

Daniel Muñoz Tackles 1.5+ · model 70.8% HIT

Luis Díaz Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Manchester United v Aston Villa FT 2-0 · epl · May 25 · 6/6 headline hits

Noussair Mazraoui Tackles 1.5+ · model 81.2% HIT

Patrick Dorgu Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Bruno Fernandes Shots 1.5+ · model 73.1% HIT

Newcastle v Everton FT 0-1 · epl · May 25 · 6/6 headline hits

Alexander Isak Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

Bruno Guimarães Fouls 0.5+ · model 85.9% HIT

Alexander Isak SOT 0.5+ · model 76.8% HIT

Nottingham Forest v Chelsea FT 0-1 · epl · May 25 · 4/6 headline hits

Moisés Caicedo Fouls 0.5+ · model 84.2% HIT

Cole Palmer Shots 1.5+ · model 82.3% MISS

Elliot Anderson Fouls 0.5+ · model 81.3% HIT

Southampton v Arsenal FT 1-2 · epl · May 25 · 5/6 headline hits

Bukayo Saka Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

Flynn Downes Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Mikel Merino Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Mateus Fernandes Fouls 0.5+ · model 78.2% HIT

Thomas Partey Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% MISS

Gabriel Martinelli Shots 1.5+ · model 70.1% HIT

Tottenham v Brighton FT 1-4 · epl · May 25 · 4/6 headline hits

Mats Wieffer Tackles 1.5+ · model 75.7% HIT

Carlos Baleba Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% MISS

Destiny Udogie Tackles 1.5+ · model 70.8% MISS

Rodrigo Bentancur Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Carlos Baleba Tackles 1.5+ · model 66.0% HIT

Pedro Porro Tackles 1.5+ · model 66.0% HIT

Wolves v Brentford FT 1-1 · epl · May 25 · 6/6 headline hits

Matheus Cunha Shots 1.5+ · model 88.0% HIT

Yoane Wissa Shots 1.5+ · model 83.0% HIT

André Tackles 1.5+ · model 81.2% HIT

João Gomes Tackles 1.5+ · model 81.2% HIT

Matheus Cunha SOT 0.5+ · model 80.2% HIT

Bryan Mbeumo Shots 1.5+ · model 80.0% HIT

Villarreal v Sevilla FT 4-2 · la-liga · May 25 · 6/6 headline hits

Lucien Agoumé Tackles 1.5+ · model 81.2% HIT

José Ángel Carmona Fouls 0.5+ · model 75.1% HIT

Thierno Barry Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% HIT

Lucien Agoumé Fouls 0.5+ · model 70.9% HIT

Dodi Lukébakio Shots 1.5+ · model 70.1% HIT

Yéremy Pino Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Girona v Atletico Madrid FT 0-4 · la-liga · May 25 · 5/6 headline hits

Yangel Herrera Fouls 0.5+ · model 91.4% HIT

A. Sørloth Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

A. Sørloth SOT 0.5+ · model 83.7% HIT

A. Sørloth Shots 2.5+ · model 75.3% HIT

A. Sørloth SOT 1.5+ · model 75.3% HIT

Javi Galán Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% MISS

Alaves v Osasuna FT 1-1 · la-liga · May 24 · 4/6 headline hits

Lucas Torró Fouls 0.5+ · model 84.2% MISS

Manu Sánchez Tackles 1.5+ · model 81.2% HIT

Ante Budimir Shots 1.5+ · model 80.0% HIT

Antonio Blanco Fouls 0.5+ · model 76.3% HIT

Jorge Herrando Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% MISS

Flavien Boyomo Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Getafe v Celta Vigo FT 1-2 · la-liga · May 24 · 5/6 headline hits

Mauro Arambarri Fouls 0.5+ · model 81.3% HIT

Yoel Lago Amil Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% MISS

Moriba Kourouma Kourouma Fouls 0.5+ · model 70.9% HIT

Francisco José Beltrán Peinado Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Christantus Uche Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Diego Rico Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Rayo Vallecano v Mallorca FT 0-0 · la-liga · May 24 · 5/6 headline hits

Samú Costa Fouls 0.5+ · model 85.9% HIT

Antonio Raíllo Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.5% HIT

Florian Lejeune Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.5% HIT

Randy Nteka Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Samú Costa Tackles 1.5+ · model 68.2% HIT

Isi Palazón Shots 1.5+ · model 67.2% HIT

AC Milan v Monza FT 2-0 · serie-a · May 24 · 2/6 headline hits

Emerson Royal Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% MISS

Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Pedro Pereira Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.0% MISS

Leganes v Valladolid FT 3-0 · la-liga · May 24 · 4/6 headline hits

Mario Martín Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.3% MISS

Stanko Juric Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% MISS

Renato Tapia Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Javi Hernández Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.9% HIT

Juanmi Latasa Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.9% HIT

Jorge Sáenz Fouls 0.5+ · model 70.9% HIT

Espanyol v Las Palmas FT 2-0 · la-liga · May 24 · 4/6 headline hits

Dário Essugo Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Pol Lozano Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

José Gragera Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% MISS

Omar El Hilali Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% MISS

Mika Mármol Fouls 0.5+ · model 65.0% HIT

Oliver McBurnie Fouls 0.5+ · model 64.8% HIT

Bologna v Genoa FT 1-3 · serie-a · May 24 · 3/6 headline hits

R. Orsolini Shots 1.5+ · model 83.0% HIT

Morten Frendrup Fouls 0.5+ · model 81.3% MISS

R. Orsolini SOT 0.5+ · model 76.8% HIT

Patrizio Masini Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Morten Thorsby Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.5% MISS

Lewis Ferguson Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% MISS

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad FT 2-0 · la-liga · May 24 · 5/6 headline hits

Kylian Mbappé Shots 1.5+ · model 96.1% HIT

Kylian Mbappé SOT 0.5+ · model 86.5% HIT

Kylian Mbappé Shots 2.5+ · model 84.4% HIT

Kylian Mbappé SOT 1.5+ · model 84.4% HIT

Jon Martín Vicente Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Martín Zubimendi Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Real Betis v Valencia FT 1-1 · la-liga · May 23 · 6/6 headline hits

Antony Shots 1.5+ · model 80.1% HIT

César Tárrega Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Cucho Hernández Shots 1.5+ · model 73.1% HIT

Como v Inter FT 0-2 · serie-a · May 23 · 1/6 headline hits

Lautaro Martínez Shots 1.5+ · model 82.3% MISS

Denzel Dumfries Fouls 0.5+ · model 78.2% MISS

Lautaro Martínez SOT 0.5+ · model 75.9% MISS

Nico Paz Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.9% HIT

Alessandro Bastoni Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% MISS

Lautaro Martínez Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% MISS

Napoli v Cagliari FT 2-0 · serie-a · May 23 · 6/6 headline hits

Roberto Piccoli Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Yerry Mina Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Scott McTominay Shots 1.5+ · model 70.1% HIT

Scott McTominay Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Romelu Lukaku Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Scott McTominay SOT 0.5+ · model 68.8% HIT

Crystal Palace v Wolves FT 4-2 · epl · May 20 · 3/6 headline hits

Matheus Cunha Shots 1.5+ · model 88.0% HIT

Daniel Muñoz Fouls 0.5+ · model 81.3% HIT

João Gomes Tackles 1.5+ · model 81.2% HIT

André Tackles 1.5+ · model 81.2% MISS

Matheus Cunha SOT 0.5+ · model 80.2% MISS

João Gomes Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% MISS

Manchester City v Bournemouth FT 3-1 · epl · May 20 · 4/6 headline hits

Antoine Semenyo Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% MISS

Evanilson Shots 1.5+ · model 82.3% HIT

Antoine Semenyo Fouls 0.5+ · model 81.3% HIT

Tyler Adams Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Antoine Semenyo SOT 0.5+ · model 73.8% MISS

Omar Marmoush Shots 1.5+ · model 73.1% HIT

Brighton v Liverpool FT 3-2 · epl · May 19 · 6/6 headline hits

Mohamed Salah Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

Mohamed Salah SOT 0.5+ · model 80.2% HIT

Mats Wieffer Tackles 1.5+ · model 75.7% HIT

Pervis Estupiñán Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Carlos Baleba Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% HIT

Ryan Gravenberch Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Cagliari v Venezia FT 3-0 · serie-a · May 18 · 4/6 headline hits

Kike Pérez Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Alessio Zerbin Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Roberto Piccoli Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% MISS

Yerry Mina Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% MISS

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Fouls 0.5+ · model 70.9% HIT

Jay Idzes Fouls 0.5+ · model 67.8% HIT

Fiorentina v Bologna FT 3-2 · serie-a · May 18 · 6/6 headline hits

Moise Kean Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

R. Orsolini Shots 1.5+ · model 83.0% HIT

Moise Kean SOT 0.5+ · model 76.8% HIT

R. Orsolini SOT 0.5+ · model 76.8% HIT

Lewis Ferguson Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Moise Kean Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Hellas Verona v Como FT 1-1 · serie-a · May 18 · 6/6 headline hits

Nicolás Valentini Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Suat Serdar Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Nico Paz Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.9% HIT

Edoardo Goldaniga Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Daniel Mosquera Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Daniele Ghilardi Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Inter v Lazio FT 2-2 · serie-a · May 18 · 6/6 headline hits

Valentin Castellanos Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

Denzel Dumfries Fouls 0.5+ · model 78.2% HIT

Valentin Castellanos SOT 0.5+ · model 76.8% HIT

Valentin Castellanos Shots 2.5+ · model 75.3% HIT

N. Rovella Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Alessandro Bastoni Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% HIT

Juventus v Udinese FT 2-0 · serie-a · May 18 · 6/6 headline hits

Dušan Vlahović Shots 1.5+ · model 80.1% HIT

Jesper Karlström Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.9% HIT

Randal Kolo Muani Shots 1.5+ · model 69.7% HIT

Thomas Kristensen Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Sandi Lovrić Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Dušan Vlahović SOT 0.5+ · model 68.8% HIT

Lecce v Torino FT 1-0 · serie-a · May 18 · 6/6 headline hits

Nikola Krstović Shots 1.5+ · model 73.1% HIT

Nikola Krstović Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.7% HIT

Santiago Pierotti Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% HIT

Nikola Krstović SOT 0.5+ · model 68.8% HIT

Balthazar Pierret Fouls 0.5+ · model 65.0% HIT

Cesare Casadei Fouls 0.5+ · model 64.8% HIT

Monza v Empoli FT 1-3 · serie-a · May 18 · 5/6 headline hits

Liam Henderson Fouls 0.5+ · model 91.4% HIT

Emmanuel Gyasi Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Sebastiano Esposito Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Alessandro Bianco Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Andrea Carboni Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Parma v Napoli FT 0-0 · serie-a · May 18 · 4/6 headline hits

Mateo Pellegrino Fouls 0.5+ · model 91.4% HIT

Hernani Fouls 0.5+ · model 72.4% HIT

Scott McTominay Shots 1.5+ · model 70.1% MISS

Scott McTominay Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Romelu Lukaku Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Scott McTominay SOT 0.5+ · model 68.8% HIT

AS Roma v AC Milan FT 3-1 · serie-a · May 18 · 4/6 headline hits

Emerson Royal Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% MISS

Bryan Cristante Fouls 0.5+ · model 76.3% HIT

Tijjani Reijnders Shots 1.5+ · model 70.1% HIT

Atletico Madrid v Real Betis FT 4-1 · la-liga · May 18 · 4/6 headline hits

A. Sørloth Shots 1.5+ · model 86.4% HIT

A. Sørloth SOT 0.5+ · model 83.7% HIT

Antony Shots 1.5+ · model 80.1% MISS

Barcelona v Villarreal FT 2-3 · la-liga · May 18 · 4/6 headline hits

Lamine Yamal Shots 1.5+ · model 96.1% HIT

Lamine Yamal Shots 2.5+ · model 84.4% HIT

Lamine Yamal SOT 0.5+ · model 83.7% HIT

Raphinha Shots 1.5+ · model 80.1% HIT

Raphinha SOT 0.5+ · model 73.8% MISS

Thierno Barry Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% MISS

Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano FT 1-2 · la-liga · May 18 · 5/6 headline hits

Yoel Lago Amil Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.8% HIT

Florian Lejeune Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.5% HIT

Óscar Valentín Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.5% HIT

Moriba Kourouma Kourouma Fouls 0.5+ · model 70.9% MISS

Francisco José Beltrán Peinado Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Marcos Alonso Mendoza Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Valencia v Athletic Club FT 0-1 · la-liga · May 18 · 4/6 headline hits

Beñat Prados Fouls 0.5+ · model 75.9% HIT

Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

César Tárrega Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Mikel Jauregizar Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.9% MISS

Hugo Duro Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

José Luis Gayà Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Mallorca v Getafe FT 1-2 · la-liga · May 18 · 4/6 headline hits

Samú Costa Fouls 0.5+ · model 85.9% HIT

Mauro Arambarri Fouls 0.5+ · model 81.3% HIT

Antonio Raíllo Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.5% HIT

Juan Iglesias Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Diego Rico Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Christantus Uche Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Real Sociedad v Girona FT 3-2 · la-liga · May 18 · 3/6 headline hits

Yangel Herrera Fouls 0.5+ · model 91.4% HIT

Martín Zubimendi Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Jon Martín Vicente Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Cristhian Stuani Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% MISS

Brais Méndez Portela Fouls 0.5+ · model 69.5% HIT

Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Fouls 0.5+ · model 64.8% HIT

Sevilla v Real Madrid FT 0-2 · la-liga · May 18 · 6/6 headline hits

Kylian Mbappé Shots 1.5+ · model 96.1% HIT

Kylian Mbappé SOT 0.5+ · model 86.5% HIT

Kylian Mbappé Shots 2.5+ · model 84.4% HIT

Kylian Mbappé SOT 1.5+ · model 84.4% HIT

Lucien Agoumé Tackles 1.5+ · model 81.2% HIT

José Ángel Carmona Fouls 0.5+ · model 75.1% HIT

Valladolid v Alaves FT 0-1 · la-liga · May 18 · 5/6 headline hits

Manu Sánchez Tackles 1.5+ · model 81.2% HIT

Mario Martín Fouls 0.5+ · model 79.3% HIT

Antonio Blanco Fouls 0.5+ · model 76.3% MISS

Santiago Mouriño Fouls 0.5+ · model 74.7% HIT

Juanmi Latasa Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.9% HIT

Selim Amallah Fouls 0.5+ · model 71.8% HIT