Visualization

Team strength

A strength rating that knows how sure it is. Every team's attack minus defense is fit with partial pooling, so thin-sample sides are pulled toward the league mean instead of over-trusted, and a bootstrap gives each rating a confidence interval. The interval is the useful part: a wide one means the edge rests on shaky ground, so the stake should shrink. That last column is exactly that, a Kelly multiplier from the model's own certainty.