Model │ Math · Free tool
Hedge Calculator
You bet ahead of the event. The price moved. A hedge on the other side banks part of the gain, sized to settle the same amount either way. Plug in the original ticket and the price now offered.
A dollar amount greater than zero.
A price in any format, +400, 5.00 or 4/1.
A price in any format, -150, 1.67 or 2/3.
The headline figure equalises the result either way, the same dollar profit whether the original ticket cashes or the hedge does.
- Locked profit (either way) ,
- Total outlay (original + hedge) ,
- Return on outlay ,
- If you don't hedge, original wins ,
Bank the gain, not the story
A hedge is a second bet on the side that loses the first one. Done right, the two tickets settle to the same dollar figure regardless of outcome, the price you pay for certainty is most of the original ticket's upside.
- Equal-profit hedge
- Solve for the hedge stake that makes the bottom line identical either way. Formula: hedge = stake × (original decimal odds ÷ hedge decimal odds).
- Locked profit
- The dollar figure that survives both outcomes. It will always be less than the unhedged return on the original ticket, that is the cost of removing the variance.
- When the verdict reads locked loss
- If the implied probabilities on both sides add to more than 100%, no equal-profit hedge can lock a positive number, the books' margin has eaten your gain. The calculator shows the figure anyway, so you can see how much.
Most hedges are a question of temperament, would you rather take the guaranteed smaller win, or ride the original ticket for the full amount? The number on the screen makes the choice concrete, but it does not make it for you.